Winter Is Arriving

I copied the following off my favorite weather site www.johndee.com Looks like winter is arriving and things should be getting white and frozen. Question is when will the lake freeze over Monday, November 30, 2009 HIGHLIGHTS: Winter looks to be arriving across the Northwoods this week and by next week could be taking a grip on much of the region. Heaviest snows later this week will be in the LES belts. 1-4 DAY FORECAST: A weak disturbance will be working through the region in the next 24 hours and bringing a bit of light snow to far northern MN, much of the UP and northern lower MI. Most totals will be under an inch, although some lake enhancement may put down as much as 1-2" in the Keweenaw later today and tonight. The next system will be working into northern MN early tomorrow and continue into tomorrow and tomorrow night and it looks like the far northern sections of MN could see as much as 3-7" of snow with this event, with a general 2-5" across the rest of the northern 1/3^rd of MN. That feature will then go on to produce a couple of inches of snow across the UP and perhaps a whitening of the ground in northern WI and northern lower MI later tomorrow and tomorrow night. The seasons coldest air to date will then dump in behind that system and looks to get the LES machines going at a fairly healthy clip in both the UP and western lower MI later Wednesday or Wednesday night and then the LES looks to continue at a fairly healthy clip Thursday into Friday and perhaps early Saturday. It’s not going to be the biggest LES event to hit these areas, but will be the first significant snow of the season for most of the LES belts of the UP and western lower MI. It is still a bit early to be trying to nail down exact amounts, but an early estimate looks to put around 6-10" down in most of the UP LES belts, with some locales seeing 12"+ totals. Some of the favored locales for the 12" would be in the far western UP (Ironwood area) as well as the higher terrain in eastern Baraga and western Marquette counties. Some of the higher terrain of Houghton (Twin Lakes area) and Keweenaw (north of Mohawk) counties may also end up with a foot or more of LES. Totals in western lower MI will likely be in the 4-8" range in a general sense, with some 12"+ totals also now out of the question. A low tracking up from the Gulf on Wednesday will also bring some precip to the eastern Midwest. Most of it looks to fall as rain, but rains will likely mix with and change to snow in far SE IL, much of IN, OH and SE lower MI before ending and a general 1-4" could fall in these areas. Temps today and tomorrow will be above average, with highs in the 30’s and low 40’s in the Northwoods, 40’s in the rest of the northern Midwest and then 50’s in the south. By Wednesday, cooler air will be dumping in and that will put most of the Northwoods below freezing for highs, with highs elsewhere in the 30’s and low 40’s. Lows by the end of the week will be in the teens and 20’s in the Northwoods, with 20’s and 30’s elsewhere. 5-10 DAY FORECAST: Things look to quiet down in the LES belts later Saturday and most of the region will remain quiet into Sunday. Then by later Sunday and into Monday, an area of low pressure looks to work in from the west and could bring a couple of inches of snow to much of the Northwoods. Things get even more interesting for the middle of next week. The models are not clear on the details, but all seem to want to indicate an area of low pressure to get organized in the Plains and head into the Midwest and bring the potential for heavy snows on it’s northwest side. The strength and track of the low are still up for grabs, but the potential is there for a band of heavy (12"+) snows to fall somewhere in the Midwest next Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by some meaningful LES. Things still look pretty wintry for the 11-16 day period as well. -John