I'd Say Winter is not Over

This is the National Weather Service forecast. Sounds like winter is not over and we may be back online by next weekend for playng in the snow!

Check out www.johndee.com he has interesting things to say too about the storms

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
314 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND FRI. PLENTY OF FCST ISSUES TO SORT THRU OVR
THE NXT 24 HRS. CONCERNS INCLUDE: FOG THIS EVENING...HOW FAST WL
THE WNDS REV UP LTR TNGT...WL THE WNDS STRENGTHEN ENUF TO WARRANT
A WND ADVY AND HOW MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE CAN OCCUR ON FRI
WITH CAA UNDERWAY.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STG AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR
INL. A WRMFNT STRETCHED SEWD FROM THE LOW THRU SW WI WHICH WAS
HELPING TO RAISE VSBYS IN THAT PART OF THE STATE. A CDFNT EXTENDED
SEWD/THEN SWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO ERN MN. NO PCPN DETECTED ON
RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT AND VSBYS ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE
AS THE WRMFNT LIFTS NEWD. PLAN IS TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVY EXPIRE
AT 21Z AND HANDLE ANY LINGERING FOG WITH EITHER A SPS OR NOWCAST.

AS THE WRMFNT CONTS TO MOVE NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES.
MEANWHILE...THE STG LOW PRES IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO
TNGT AND HELP TO SWING THE CDFNT ACROSS WI DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING HRS. EXPECT SOME FOG TO LINGER UNTIL THE CDFNT OCCURS AND
THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS WNDS BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVRNGT. ALL MDLS SHOW STG SUBSIDENCE AND WITH 925 MB
WND SPDS REACHING 35 TO 40 KTS BY DAYBREAK...BLUSTERY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT THE SFC.
NOT MUCH LIFT PRECEDES THE CDFNT AND SFC OBS TO THE WEST NOT
PICKING UP ANYTHING MORE THAN DRZL/SPRINKLES...SO KEPT POPS ON THE
VERY LOW SIDE. MIN TEMPS WL BE THE COOLEST IN N-CNTRL WI WHERE
COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE FIRST...WHILE E-CNTRL WI MAY NOT FALL BLO
FREEZING.

VERY STG SUBSIDENCE SIGNAL TO PERSIST OVR WI THRU FRI WITH 925 MB
WESTERLY WNDS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. INCREASING LOW-LVL LAPSE
RATES AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PROVIDE ENUF MIXING
TO TRANSPORT SOME OF THESE STG WNDS TO THE SFC. THESE WNDS MAY
GUST AS HI AS 45 MPH WHICH IS THE MINIMUM THRESHOLD FOR A WND
ADVY. AFT COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO
GO WITH JUST WINDY CONDITIONS WITH A WND ADVY ONLY FOR DOOR COUNTY
WHO COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. MDLS ALSO SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND
MSTR SKIMMING NRN WI ON FRI...THUS HAVE KEPT A SML CHC OF SNOW
SHWRS OVR THIS PART OF NE WI. ANY LK ENHANCEMENT FROM SUPERIOR
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE MI BORDER AS TRAJS ARE TOO WESTERLY. MAX
TEMPS WL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT THURSDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA
AND WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. ANY LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND
PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END...BUT THERE SMALL WINDOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N/C WI AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE
NE AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BETWEEN -17C AND -20C. BY EARLY SATURDAY...
DRY AIR MOVES IN AND ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO AN END.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODELS SEEMED TO BE CONVERGING ON A SCENARIO THAT WOULD BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...17/12Z GFS AND NAM AND CANADIAN HAVE
CHANGED COURSE WITH A LARGE SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND ARE A LITTLE
FASTER. ECMWF IS FARTHEST SOUTH AND SLOWER...KEEPING ALL THE
PRECIP AS SNOW...WITH ADVISORY/WARNING? SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING
THRU MONDAY MORNING. THE OTHER MODELS ARE FASTER...BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...AND BRING THE WARM SECTOR INTO
THE CWA...WHICH BRINGS ALL THE P-TYPES INTO PLAY. (SNOW/RAIN/
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET) HARD TO IGNORE THE MAJORITY...SO WILL
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A NORTHERLY TRACK...BUT NOT GO AS FAR AS
THE GFS. WILL BRING THE MIXED PRECIP TO A WAUSAU TO STURGEON BAY
LINE...BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE
ON A TRACK. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ITS ENERGY IS
STILL OVER THE PACIFIC AND WILL NOT BE SAMPLED WELL FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN OR TWO. STRENGTH AND PHASING OF AN UPPER LOW/TROF ACROSS
CANADA ALSO WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. STAY
TUNED!

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS AS MODELS SHOW
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. ECMWF HAS ANOTHER ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE
CWA...WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIP TO THE SOUTH. WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTHERN IDEA AND JUST KEEP LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
SOME LINGERING FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTIONS WILL
BE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS N/C WI AND THE LAKESHORE. ACROSS N/W
WI...MODELS DIFFER ON EXTENT OF COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C TO -17C ON GFS/ECMWF...WHILE THE CANADIAN SHOWS A
POCKET OF 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW -20S. WIND DIRECTIONS IS NOT
GREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...BUT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS N/C WI TO COVER ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. FOR THE
LAKESHORE...WILL KEEP SOME POPS NEAR THE SHORELINE AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP INTO IN THE -9C TO -12C RANGE. WIND DIRECTION A LITTLE IN
QUESTION AS MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NE TO BRING ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ONSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. A COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AS CAA DOMINATES...THEN TEMPS WILL MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO PLAN TO ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
MAJOR SYSTEM POSSIBLE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...SO STAY TUNED!
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